Could Trump be hoping for impeachment to avoid federal prosecution?

Amidst all of the clamor over a possible impeachment effort by the House of Representatives against President Trump, an interesting question has arisen: Could President Trump actually be hoping to be impeached and then exonerated by the Senate to avoid federal prosecution after his Presidency is over? If so, would this explain his multiple orders to his staff, including Justice Department officials, not to testify before Congress and to ignore Congressional subpoenas?

The impeachment scenario

Here is how the scenario could be played out, at least in Trump's mind, if he is hoping to be impeached and then exonerated: If he is not impeached and is allowed to serve out his term of office, he most likely will not be re-elected in 2020 (All poll numbers currently are indicating that Joe Biden would easily defeat Trump, "hands down"). Trump would be subject to federal prosecution for collusion with the Russians, cover-ups and tax evasion on January 21, 2021, the first day that he is once again a private citizen at the end of his Presidency. It is very likely that prosecution of "private citizen" Trump would be swift and relentless.

Trump may be thinking that his only hope of avoiding federal prosecution is to be impeached by the House and then exonerated by the Senate while he still is President.

Why no prosecution?

The question arises: Why would a failed impeachment lessen the likelihood of a federal prosecution of Trump after his Presidency is over? The truthful answer is that it would not do so; however, Trump may be hoping that it would and that it is his only hope. Trump may be thinking that federal prosecutors would lay off and scale back their investigations and prosecution efforts if he had been impeached and then exonerated by the Republican led Senate. He may be thinking that prosecutors would take a look at the situation and say to themselves, "Why bother?;  He is not going to be convicted anyway."

The political will for prosecution

Trump also may be thinking that after a long, dragged out and laborious impeachment process that ended up in his being acquitted, that the political will for a federal prosecution of him as a private citizen simply would not be there. Prosecutions do not occur in vacuums. They are influenced by public opinion.  Juries are not supposed to be influenced by public opinion, and federal prosecutors are not supposed to be so influenced either. But when the political will of the People is adamantly against pursuing a prosecution, it makes it difficult for prosecutors to subpoena witnesses who are willing to cooperate or to conduct needed investigations.

Avoiding prison time

Trump may be hoping that the best way for him to avoid prison time is to wear out the investigatory process to the point that prosecutors are unable to proceed any further. The best way to win a race is to wear out the other guy's horse before the race even starts. What better way to wear out the horse is there than through a failed impeachment effort? Therein lies Trump's possible motive for his "face off" with Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats, his orders to his subordinates to disobey their subpoenas and his refusal to release his tax records.

Will Trump be impeached?

In this commentator's opinion, Trump most likely will not be impeached. Certainly articles of impeachment will be introduced and some House members from Progressive districts will strongly advocate for impeachment. However, impeachment is a political process and is governed by political realities. The fact of the matter is that although he could be impeached by the House, Trump would not be convicted by the Senate. It would be a failed impeachment effort. And the Democratic Congress that impeached Trump, not the Senate that acquitted him, would suffer the political losses in the 2020 elections. Nancy Pelosi is well aware of this which is why she is holding the reins on impeachment so tightly.

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Man arrested for threatening to kill President Trump

A Connecticut man in his fifties has been arrested after making threats to kill President Trump and claiming to have sent letters to Trump contaminated with Anthrax. The subject, 51 year-old Gary Joseph Gravelle of New Haven, Connecticut, has been charged on two felony counts: Conveying false information about an explosive device and making threats against the President of the Untied States, according to ABC News, on May 12, 2019. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/connecticut-man-accused-threatening-kill-trump-62991441

Bomb threats

The explosive device charge against Gravalle pertains to bomb threats that he sent to the White House addressed to President Trump and to the Islamic Center of New London. The threatening letters allegedly stated, "You die" and were laced with baby powder that easily could have been mistaken for Anthrax.

What is Anthrax?

Anthrax is a deadly bacterial disease that is caused by the bacteria Bacillus anthracis and afflicts cattle and sheep. It can be spread to humans. Cattle and sheep that are afflicted with the disease have to be destroyed because there is no known cure for the disease; although human victims of the deadly disease have been treated with the antibiotics doxycycline and ciprofloxacin with limited success.

Anthrax has been used as a weapon by terrorists. Baby powder, which looks like the white, powdery substance that contains Anthrax, sometimes is used by terrorists to incite fear in threatening letters. In this case, one such intended recipient of a baby powder/Anthrax hoax was President Trump.

Gravelle's prior conviction

Gravelle was convicted of sending threatening letters in 2013. More recently, he has been in custody since September 2018 for violating the terms of his probation.

Seriousness of threatening the President

Threatening the President of the United States, or a candidate for President, is a federal felony violation under the United States Code Title 18, Section 871. The key to conviction is whether the subject "knowingly and willfully" made such threats. Such threats are investigated by the Secret Service and are classified as political offenses. Subjects who are convicted under Title 18, Section 871 can look forward to many years or even decades of incarceration in federal prison.

-Kevin McClarty, Political Issues Forum 2019