Could Trump be hoping for impeachment to avoid federal prosecution?

Amidst all of the clamor over a possible impeachment effort by the House of Representatives against President Trump, an interesting question has arisen: Could President Trump actually be hoping to be impeached and then exonerated by the Senate to avoid federal prosecution after his Presidency is over? If so, would this explain his multiple orders to his staff, including Justice Department officials, not to testify before Congress and to ignore Congressional subpoenas?

The impeachment scenario

Here is how the scenario could be played out, at least in Trump's mind, if he is hoping to be impeached and then exonerated: If he is not impeached and is allowed to serve out his term of office, he most likely will not be re-elected in 2020 (All poll numbers currently are indicating that Joe Biden would easily defeat Trump, "hands down"). Trump would be subject to federal prosecution for collusion with the Russians, cover-ups and tax evasion on January 21, 2021, the first day that he is once again a private citizen at the end of his Presidency. It is very likely that prosecution of "private citizen" Trump would be swift and relentless.

Trump may be thinking that his only hope of avoiding federal prosecution is to be impeached by the House and then exonerated by the Senate while he still is President.

Why no prosecution?

The question arises: Why would a failed impeachment lessen the likelihood of a federal prosecution of Trump after his Presidency is over? The truthful answer is that it would not do so; however, Trump may be hoping that it would and that it is his only hope. Trump may be thinking that federal prosecutors would lay off and scale back their investigations and prosecution efforts if he had been impeached and then exonerated by the Republican led Senate. He may be thinking that prosecutors would take a look at the situation and say to themselves, "Why bother?;  He is not going to be convicted anyway."

The political will for prosecution

Trump also may be thinking that after a long, dragged out and laborious impeachment process that ended up in his being acquitted, that the political will for a federal prosecution of him as a private citizen simply would not be there. Prosecutions do not occur in vacuums. They are influenced by public opinion.  Juries are not supposed to be influenced by public opinion, and federal prosecutors are not supposed to be so influenced either. But when the political will of the People is adamantly against pursuing a prosecution, it makes it difficult for prosecutors to subpoena witnesses who are willing to cooperate or to conduct needed investigations.

Avoiding prison time

Trump may be hoping that the best way for him to avoid prison time is to wear out the investigatory process to the point that prosecutors are unable to proceed any further. The best way to win a race is to wear out the other guy's horse before the race even starts. What better way to wear out the horse is there than through a failed impeachment effort? Therein lies Trump's possible motive for his "face off" with Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats, his orders to his subordinates to disobey their subpoenas and his refusal to release his tax records.

Will Trump be impeached?

In this commentator's opinion, Trump most likely will not be impeached. Certainly articles of impeachment will be introduced and some House members from Progressive districts will strongly advocate for impeachment. However, impeachment is a political process and is governed by political realities. The fact of the matter is that although he could be impeached by the House, Trump would not be convicted by the Senate. It would be a failed impeachment effort. And the Democratic Congress that impeached Trump, not the Senate that acquitted him, would suffer the political losses in the 2020 elections. Nancy Pelosi is well aware of this which is why she is holding the reins on impeachment so tightly.

Mad about the way things are in Modesto? Click here to Sound Off and be heard!